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Revenue growth of organised jewellery retailers is set to slide 500-600 basis points (bps) to 5-6 percent over fiscals 2020
and 2021, following triple headwinds of higher import duty, elevated gold prices, and sluggish demand. That’s half the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12 percent seen in three fiscals through 2019, an analysis of 44 CRISIL-rated jewellery retailers, which account for a third of the organised jewellery sector’s revenue, shows.Gold imports fell 20 percent on-year during April-December 2019, and 45 percent between July and December after import duty was increased by 250 bps to 12.5 percent in Budget 2019
Banks have been shy of extending more working capital loans following asset quality issues at certain jewellers, which
has affected lending sentiment. That, in turn, is limiting new store openings and hence revenue growth.
Gold imports fell (Chart 1) 20 percent on-year during April-December 2019, and 45 percent between July and December after import duty was increased by 250 bps to 12.5 percent in the Union Budget presented in July 2019 (Chart 2), as retailers offloaded their lower-duty inventory and demand slackened.
Gold prices are expected to stay high because of global economic slack and geopolitical uncertainties. Domestic prices have surged 25 percent in the past one year to almost Rs 40,000 for 10 gm of 24-carat gold (Chart 3).
“High gold prices, accompanied with increased import duty, are the primary reasons gold jewellery purchases have been subdued,” said Gautam Shahi, Director, CRISIL Ratings. “But retailers with a reasonable share of diamond-studded gold jewellery sales had a better festive season (in October, which
accounts for ~15 percent of annual sales). They would be relatively less impacted compared with those that sell largely gold jewellery.”
Gold imports are highly elastic to increase in import duty, just the way retail demand is to domestic prices of gold. If gold prices and import duty remain high for long, they can undo the gains made by organised retailers in recent years, which were driven by higher same-store sales and expansion of outlets.
CRISIL foresees subdued gold imports in fiscal 2021, too. With prices continue to be elevated, consumers will prefer to exchange their old gold for new. Therefore, even with lower imports, revenues will grow on account of higher prices and higher proportion of old gold exchange. However, the growth will be lower compared to what was seen in the last 3 fiscals.
On their part, banks have been reducing exposure to the sector over the past 18 months. While gross bank credit outstanding rose 7 percent last November (on-year), lending to the gems and jewellery sector slid 10 percent. Banks are also seeking higher collateral or margins from jewellers, which increases their cost and constrains store additions. But retailers with stronger balance sheets are able to continue store expansions and thus outpacing peers on growth.
“Given the milieu, we expect the credit metrics of organised jewellery retailers to moderate this fiscal,” said Kiran Kavala, Associate Director, CRISIL Ratings. “The credit ratio (rating upgrades to downgrades) of CRISIL’s rated pool of gold jewellers has hovered at 0.8-0.9 time since fiscal 2019 to date.”
Two factors could provide some offset: jewellery retailers typically have 10-15 percent of their inventory unhedged, which helps them benefit from a sharp rise in gold prices. Further, high gold prices also provide flexibility to run tactical promotions via jewellery-making charges to boost sales without significantly impacting margins.
“The new Melissa flagship store gives us the opportunity to tap into the Indian retail space with a new and innovative fashion product. We are a one of a kind brand, dealing in eco-friendly 100 percent recyclable shoes, made of specially-developed Melflex plastic,” said Ruchi Sally, Managing Director, ENVIABLY ME INDIA Pvt. Ltd, the exclusive franchisee of Melissa in India.
Fashion retailers must seek private equity investment going beyond their mere monetary needs and look at creating eco-systems and process while roping in the financial investor, as per the conclusion of a cross section of private equity players and retailers here on Wednesday.
Prasad shares, “Piracy is a big challenge for us. Popularity of Chhota Bheem has been exploited in the pirated market. We try to create awareness among customers and buyers and take help of the law. Time to time, based on the information gathered, we conduct piracy raids with help of law and agencies.”
The brand caters to girls and young women aged 18 years and above. It offers affordable western outfits with lengths, forms, fabrics and silhouettes that are more suitable to wear in India. As per Anushka, there’s a bit of her fashion sensibility and sense of style in all pieces, and they have worked towards providing enough styles so that there’s something for every woman at Nush. She has worked closely with Suditi’s in-house team on almost every aspect of the brand creation i.e. from design to distribution. Agarwal apprises that it is a mutual know-how exchange and both parties continue to work together to enhance the brand reputation.
When the Future Group does nothing, it’s never halfway house. The company then proceeded to set up a design house based out of London to develop cutting edge fast fashion. This design house was dubbed Future Style Lab, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Future Group, which developed and procured styles for Cover Story. Cover Story refreshes 10 percent of its collection every week by adding new pieces. It then phases out 10 percent of the older collection to even out the stock.
Speaking on the occasion, Ananth Narayanan, CEO, Myntra-Jabong, said, “The penetration of online shopping which is currently at 4 percent will go up to 10 – 15 percent over the next 3 to 5 years. This will be driven by both proliferation, access to data and the consumer becoming more comfortable with online experiences. A customer typically went through a three to five year cycle from the moment of his first digital experience till he was comfortable buying products online; however these time frames are getting compressed. Going by this trend, the e-commerce sector could be as high as 50 percent of the organised retail market in India over the next three years.”
Tommy Hilfiger, which is owned by PVH Corp, has announced new brand partnerships with Bose and e-Novia to bring the world of Formula One to life at the TommyNow ‘Drive’ experiential runway event held on February 25 during Milan Fashion Week.Tommy Hilfiger, which is owned by PVH Corp, has announced new brand partnerships with Bose and e-Novia to bring the world of Formula One to life at the TommyNow 'Drive' experiential runway event held on February 25 during Milan Fashion Week