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Higher in-home consumption due to increased stay-at-home period and a sharper focus on health and hygiene amid the pandemic are helping Indian home textile exporters weave their way out of the downturn faster than other textile segments. Revenue de-growth for home textile exporters will be limited to 10-12% this fiscal compared with 30-35% for the overall textile sector, indicates a CRISIL analysis of 50 companies that account for over 60% of India’s home textile exports.
Lower revenues would hurt operating margins. However, lower requirement of capacity addition and working capital will limit material moderation in the credit profiles of home textile exporters this fiscal.
The ~Rs 55,000 crore Indian home textile sector, comprising products such as terry towels, bed sheets and spreads, pillow cases, curtains, and rugs and carpets, derives as much as 60 70% of its revenue from exports. The United States and the European Union account for over 80% of these exports, with big box retailers of essentials and departmental stores among the major customers.
Says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, “Export order flow has improved significantly beginning with the second quarter of current fiscal due to reopening of departmental stores and pent-up demand. With people spending more time at home, including for work, drastically lower socialising opportunities, and
sharper focus on health and hygiene, demand for home textile products will continue to grow. Demand is expected to stay strong in the third quarter as well due to the festive season, when these retailers launch large-scale programmes.”
The improvement is borne out by a 7% on-year sales growth in the fiscal second quarter for four large listed home textile exporters who had logged 40% lower revenue on-year in the first quarter.
The lockdown had a limited impact on retailers of essentials as these operated through the pandemic. However, sales at departmental stores suffered heavily in the March-May period. Some retailers also underwent restructuring, leading to permanent store closures. Additionally, manufacturing was impacted due to plant shutdowns for 30-45 days. A weak first quarter will have a bearing on revenues for the full fiscal, which are expected to decline 10-12%.
Also, lower capacity utilisation and benign realisations in the first quarter will lead to suboptimal coverage of fixed costs despite cheaper cotton prices and favourable currency movement. This will lead to moderation in the operating margin of home textile exporters by 200 basis points to 12-13% from ~15% seen over the past two fiscals.
With sufficient capacity available, investments in capacity addition are expected to be moderate this fiscal. Also, lower inventory requirements owing to continued soft cotton prices in the coming season will keep working capital requirements stable, and hence debt levels under control.
Says Gautam Shahi, Director, CRISIL Ratings, “While moderation in operating margins will lead to a decline in the interest-coverage ratio* for the sample set to ~3.5 times this fiscal from 4.5-5 times over the past two fiscals, the debt to equity ratio will still sustain at adequate levels of 1-1.2 times because of controlled debt utilisation. This will limit material impact on credit profiles.”
In the milieu, continued order flow from major export markets, improvement in domestic demand, and the ability of players to manage liquidity amid the continuing pandemic will be key monitorables. That said, home textile manufacturers deriving a larger part of their revenue domestically are affected more than exporters due to extensive lockdowns in India and gradual opening of many retail outlets, leading to slower recovery.
Announcing the launch of Fastrack Perfumes, S. Ravi Kant, CEO – Watches and Wearables, Titan Company Limited said, “Being India’s iconic youth fashion brand, Fastrack has consistently endeavoured to meet the ever-changing needs of the Indian consumers. It was time for us to widen our footprint in the personal lifestyle categories that are currently underserved. With the sharp rise in focus on grooming and fragrancing, there was a clear consumer need which we have tried to fulfil with this collection.”
Kewal Kiran earlier, followed a conservative approach, selling garments to wholesalers and distributors through an outright purchase agreement. Though this strategy helped in building a strong balance sheet with better cash flows, it did not provide access to key northern markets. The company will now offer garments to traders in North India with a commitment to take back 20 to 30 percent of the goods if not sold.
Customers can take their pick across a range of designer sarees, lehengas, dresses, kurta sets and gowns catering to traditional occasions, wedding trousseau, evening soirees and cocktail parties. The collection will be available on Myntra at a price range of rupees 10,000 to rupees 1,50,000.
Envisaging a steady and bright future for the Indian fashion retail business, Akhilesh Prasad, President & CEO, Fashion & Lifestyle Business, Reliance Retail, remarked that the rich culture and long-standing trading and textile history are the main strengths for the Indian retail economy. “Although resources are limited, most of the changes in the world have happened through innovative thinking. Indians have our native intelligence and an ancient, yet robust civilisation. In the economic history of the world until 1,750, India and China had dominated world trade. The West has a vintage of 200-250 years, but I am certain that in the next 50 years, the cycle will change and India and China will again dominate the retail scene.”
“The increased competition is mainly in the suits segment and that too at two levels. Firstly, there is ready-to-wear suits available at premium international stores like Zara or H&M and secondly there are luxury brands who are doing the suits, bespoke and traditional bandgalas. But when it comes to a traditional occasion wear pick, the indigenous brands are still way ahead,” opines Mehra.
The kids’ ethnic wear market was approximately US $1.6 billion in 2018 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 8 percent by 2028. Brands like BIBA and First Cry offer a huge variety in kids’ ethnic wear. For Diwali season 2019, First Cry promoted its ethnic wear merchandise through a video that was uploaded on their YouTube channel and was also promoted through television. Brands are catering to this segment and see huge growth potential in the sector.
The 2-day price reveal period ahead of the sale saw items wishlisted 100 million times by customers primarily from categories such as T-shirts, tops and dresses. 2.6 lakh orders were placed by 2.3 lakh customers availing the early access facility during the sale preview. The VIP slots known as Gold Slots before the start of the sale, witnessed 3.8 lakh shoppers placing 4.1 lakh orders.
Fastrack brand has carved a unique identity and is synonymous with youth fashion. Year after year the brand has launched cool and fashionable accessories for the youth of the country. With the launch of these well-crafted perfumes that rekindle olfactive imagination, the brand is sure to find space in any youngster’s wardrobe. The collection consists of 7 different perfumes – Trance, Beat & Pulse each for men and women and a signature unisex offering Solo – in tune with the concept of gender fluidity.
More recently, the nature of prediction problems moved into cognitive areas like object recognition. The accuracy of predicting what is there in an image has also significantly improved over time and now the latest results outperform human benchmarks. The progression over time on image classification is evident below. Our businesses and personal lives are riddled with predictions. Often our predictions are hidden as inputs into decision making. Better prediction means better information which means better decision making. Prediction is, therefore ‘intelligence’ with us obtaining useful information. Better predictions lead to better outcomes.
Rapid urbanisation has spawned a modern class of consumers with more money to spend and a growing passion for current fashion. The demand for occasion-specific clothing is growing within the menswear segment. Modern age males are starting to prioritise personal grooming and fashion, further driving growth of the suits’ market. The demand for ethnic dressing at special occasions like marriages and social functions also gives a stimulus to the men’s formal wear segment.
Over the years and significantly in the 20th century, the saree attire has evolved and new trends have been set by Indian icons from different walks of life that have trickled down to the masses. The changing persona of women and their status in society and interrelated influences have impacted the saree fashion at a particular time.
“Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality have proved to be a boon for smaller brands and those that have constraints of space. Retail brands can re-think physical space utilisation and overcome the limitations with this technology. Taking a cue from global brands, many Indian brands are now embracing the use of this technology creatively and thus redefining real estate requirements in fashion retail shopping,” Rajat said.
The other major development in the brand sales strategy is the switch to influencers for promoting their products. Online sales spike has been observed in least expected avenues on digital platforms such as influencers and social media opinion leaders who are the most consumed content today. Today, people are more receptive to stories told by influencers than models or advertisements. This trend now pushes brands to use data to put the experience in a way that is more consumable by the user.
The various ongoing developments in the fashion retail industry reflect the optimism of the market and indicate immense potential for growth and innovation. Due to the impact of global fashion trends and blurring lines between well defined styles for men and women, accessories are no longer just limited to women. Indian men too have embraced world fashion and have begun to wear more colourful clothes and prints in different styles and have started demonstrating higher fashion-consciousness and awareness. To match the increasing demand from consumers, Raymond, the men’s wear brand, is expanding its accessory segment.
Crafted with superior fabric, the collection featured suits and blazers with rich colour palettes that include lustrous wine tones, deep cobalt blues and vibrant earthy reds. The satin weaves along with the luxury fabric lend a touch of exclusivity to the collection. Reducing the heavy trims, the collection comprised three-piece suit sets, and blazers thoughtfully created to keep the customer’s comfort in mind. The high on fashion suits and blazers collection break the monotony by adding contrasting colours to the ensemble with perfection.